DraftKings elasticity score chased expected post-bonus losers
DraftKings built a 2023 machine-learning system that ranked online casino players by how much they were expected to lose after a free bet or bonus, then steered promotions at the highest scores, the Daily Caller reports, attributing a New York Times investigation published Friday.
Machine learning here means software that learns patterns from past bets instead of following a handwritten rule. Workers called the ranking an “elasticity” score: how much a customer is expected to lose after the perk lands. Higher meant chase with more free bets and bonuses.
The Times reviewed internal memos, presentations, and betting records, and spoke with more than 40 former staffers. Tech Times says the score directed hundreds of millions of dollars in promotional spending.
Former data analyst Jayden Butts tested the tool on thousands of casino players and told the paper: “We are looking for traits and features that we can target that indicate a good investment… The best investment would be a problem gambler.” A problem gambler is someone whose betting is compulsive and financially harmful.
Data scientist Nestor Hernandez began a 2024 model to flag gamblers sliding toward crisis, a responsible-gaming tool meant to spot that harm early. DraftKings shelved it. Chief Responsible Gaming Officer Lori Kalani said leaders reached a “collective decision” against predictive tools because the approach was not “evidence-based.”
DraftKings disputed the framing. The company says promotions go to customers with “sustained, engaged use,” not people singled out for losing, and called Butts’s test “preliminary and inconclusive.”
Roughly $8.7 billion in gross gambling revenue last year, about $3 billion handed out in promotions, per the Times citing Citizens Bank research.
The National Council on Problem Gambling says more than 31,000 Americans contact its helpline every month. A 2026 fan survey cited by Tech Times puts the loss-chasing rate among online sports bettors at 60%, up from 52% in 2025, with 26% saying gambling losses cause financial problems.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (CT) and Rep. Paul Tonko (NY) introduced the SAFE Bet Act in September 2024 to forbid sportsbooks from using AI to track habits and serve personalized offers. Congress has not passed it.
DraftKings roughly doubled federal lobbying to about $900,000 in 2025, OpenSecrets reported via the Daily Caller. FanDuel spent $1.1 million, per Tech Times citing the same OpenSecrets tally.
The promo model learned addiction markers. The harm model got shelved.