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The Friday brief: OpenAI’s $20 billion counting gap, Coinbase’s Michigan deadline, and heating oil

Aaron Harme

OpenAI told investors it expects $50 billion in revenue this year after signaling $70 billion a month ago, and the gap traces back to how it and Anthropic count sales. Chip stocks took the hit on Thursday.

Coinbase’s sports contracts leave Michigan at midnight tonight, OpenAI’s Australia breach email turns out to have had AI help, and heating oil is headed for $5.26 a gallon.

In this Brief

  • OpenAI’s $50 billion projection sits $20 billion under last month’s signal, and Anthropic counts cloud-partner sales that OpenAI doesn’t
  • OpenAI used AI to help write the email disclosing its agent’s intrusion into Australian government systems
  • Coinbase’s Michigan sports contracts shut off at 12:00 a.m. ET Saturday
  • The EIA sees heating oil up 34% this winter, and its bill estimate assumes a warm one

OpenAI’s $20 billion gap is about how revenue gets counted

Setup: The Guardian reports OpenAI told investors its revenue this year would reach $50 billion, a projection based on sales through September, after signaling $70 billion last month. The Guardian says the gap arose when investors tried to compare OpenAI’s figure with Anthropic’s, which includes sales through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud. OpenAI’s doesn’t. The Nasdaq closed down 1.4% Thursday, with Nvidia off 2.9%, Micron 4.8% and Oracle 5.5%.

These are run-rates, a month or a quarter of revenue multiplied out to a year, and each lab sets its own rules. OpenAI is in early talks to raise $30 billion at about a $1.4 trillion valuation, and Anthropic is expected to pursue an IPO as soon as next month, which would put its revenue under audited accounting rules.

Longer cut: OpenAI’s $20 billion revenue gap is a counting problem, and that’s the problem.

OpenAI’s breach disclosure email had AI help

Setup: Guardian Australia reports OpenAI’s legal and security teams used AI to generate parts of the wording in the email telling Services Australia that an OpenAI agent had gotten into its systems. A source said humans reviewed and sent it. At a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday, chief strategy officer Jason Kwon was asked whether staff used AI to write that email and answered, “I don’t believe so, but we’re happy to go and confirm.”

The email went out Sept. 10, to an inbox checked once a day, after OpenAI had known about the June intrusion since August. On Thursday, assistant minister Andrew Charlton said the agent “hacked into an Australian government system.”

See full breakdown at @Aaron_Harme on X.

Coinbase’s Michigan sports contracts end tonight

Setup: The Michigan Gaming Control Board says Coinbase agreed to stop offering new sports event contracts to Michigan customers and close open positions by 12:00 a.m. ET Oct. 10, including contracts traded on Kalshi and other federally registered exchanges. The state holds off enforcement while appeals proceed at the Sixth Circuit. The board says it now has agreements or court orders halting sports contracts from Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase.

Michigan got there without a final ruling on whether a state can treat a CFTC-registered contract as gambling. That question is now in front of the Supreme Court in New Jersey’s petition, where the NFL has filed a brief siding with the states.

See full breakdown at @Aaron_Harme on X.

Heating oil is headed for $5.26 a gallon

Setup: CNBC reports the EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook puts heating oil at an average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34%. The average oil-heated home would spend $2,115 from November through March, about 21% more than last winter. Heating oil and diesel are basically the same fuel, and refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East plus lower Chinese fuel exports have tightened supply of both.

The bill rises less than the price because the EIA expects a warmer winter and 9% less oil burned. About 82% of the 4.1 million US homes that heat with oil are in the Northeast, and Massachusetts was already at $6.12 a gallon on Oct. 5.

See full breakdown at @Aaron_Harme on X.

Also noted

  • MarketWatch, citing the Financial Times: Starbucks has explored buying Chipotle in some form, which would be the biggest deal in restaurant history. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol ran Chipotle before he took the job in 2024.
  • Engadget: SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum so Starlink Mobile can reach phones inside buildings, pending FCC approval.
  • ReadWrite, citing The Independent: The NFL’s Supreme Court brief says $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market volume on the season’s opening Sunday was tied to NFL games, and that the CFTC has 543 employees.
  • The Verge: Anthropic’s new OSS Scanner offers open-source projects free periodic security scans from its strongest models, including Mythos, with reports that are fully model-generated and not reviewed by humans.
  • Engadget: IDC counted 62.7 million PCs shipped worldwide in the third quarter, down 20.1% from a year earlier, citing supply issues and elevated prices.
  • Guardian Australia: Nvidia-backed AI data center company Firmus scrapped what would have been the biggest ASX listing since Telstra in 1997 after investor demand failed to materialize.

Sources

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